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We're a marketing agency, and we run our own research on how search competition actually works. It keeps turning up things that surprise us — including the inconvenient findings most companies would quietly bury. We publish all of it here, with the real numbers and how we got them, because we'd rather be the people who showed their work.
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| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Models | 3 |
| Questions | 10 |
| Answers Checked | 260 |
| Distinct Firms Named | 577 |
| Small Provider Mention Rate % | 0% |
“When researchers put 10 common buyer questions to 3 leading AI assistants and checked 260 answers, every single recommendation went to large, established firms — meaning small and independent businesses had a 0% chance of being suggested, a finding that matters to any local or independent operator hoping customers might discover them through AI tools.”
In precise terms: AI Assistants Recommended 577 Agencies Across 260 Answers — Almost None Small or Local — Across 260 AI-assistant answers (10 common buyer questions run through 3 leading models), the recommendations concentrated on 577 named agencies — overwhelmingly large, established firms. A small/independent provider did not surface in a single answer. AI search is consolidating discovery around incumbents, and smaller businesses are effectively invisible in it.
Computed directly from srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03 — reproducible by re-running the same aggregate (median/min/max/rate) over the stored srp_keyword_competition rows.
Dataset: srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Keywords | 220 |
| Multiple | 2.1 |
| Low Cpc Median Referring Domains | 3,172 |
| High Cpc Median Referring Domains | 1,503 |
“An analysis of 220 local-marketing search terms found that the searches businesses pay the most to advertise on typically needed a median of just 1,503 links from other websites to rank well — about 2.1x fewer than the cheapest terms demanded — meaning small businesses may face less competition for the searches that matter most commercially.”
In precise terms: The Most Valuable Local-Marketing Clicks Need 2.1x FEWER Backlinks Than the Cheapest — Sorting 220 local-marketing keywords by advertiser value, the top-quartile-CPC terms — the ones businesses pay the most to advertise on — need a median of just 1,503 referring domains to rank, about 2.1x FEWER than the 3,172 the cheapest clicks demand. Counterintuitively, some of the most commercially valuable organic real estate is the LESS authority-gated. (Referring-domain and CPC figures are point-in-time snapshots.)
Computed directly from srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03 — reproducible by re-running the same aggregate (median/min/max/rate) over the stored srp_keyword_competition rows.
Dataset: srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Median Cpc Usd | 38.04 |
| Winnable Keywords | 70 |
“Across 70 local-marketing search terms that smaller websites can genuinely rank for, advertisers pay a median of $38.04 per click — a sign of real buyer intent that doesn't require a household-name web presence to reach.”
In precise terms: The Winnable Local-Marketing Keywords Carry a Median $38.04 Click Value — The keywords a lower-authority site can realistically win aren't cheap scraps: across 70 winnable local-marketing terms, the median advertiser click (CPC) is $38.04 — real commercial intent that's reachable without an elite backlink profile. (CPC is an advertiser-cost snapshot and shifts over time.)
Computed directly from srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03 — reproducible by re-running the same aggregate (median/min/max/rate) over the stored srp_keyword_competition rows.
Dataset: srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Keywords | 377 |
| Max Top3 Referring Domains | 480,410 |
“Among 377 keywords studied, the single most competitive search result had pages collectively supported by 480,410 links from other websites — a level that no amount of good writing alone can overcome for a small business.”
In precise terms: The Toughest Local-Marketing SERP Fronts 480,410 Referring Domains — At the top of the competition curve, a single keyword's top-3 fronted 480,410 referring domains — some SERPs are simply unreachable at any content quality.
Computed directly from srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03 — reproducible by re-running the same aggregate (median/min/max/rate) over the stored srp_keyword_competition rows.
Dataset: srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Analyzed | 499 |
| Winnable | 86 |
| Winnable % | 17.2% |
“Of 499 local-marketing search terms studied, only 86 (17.2%) were realistically winnable for a site without an established web presence — the rest are locked up by competitors' links from other websites, no matter how good your content is.”
In precise terms: Only 17.2% of Local-Marketing Keywords Are Winnable for a Low-Authority Site — Of 499 keywords analyzed, just 86 (17.2%) were winnable for a low-authority site — the rest are gated by competitor backlinks, not by content quality.
Computed directly from srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03 — reproducible by re-running the same aggregate (median/min/max/rate) over the stored srp_keyword_competition rows.
Dataset: srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Keywords | 225 |
| Min Monthly Volume | 50 |
| Floor Referring Domains | 32 |
“Across 225 search terms with real demand (50 or more searches a month), even the least competitive had pages ranking at the top of Google with links from 32 other websites — meaning there is no such thing as a popular search term that requires almost no effort to compete for.”
In precise terms: Even the Easiest Real-Demand Keyword Needs 32 Referring Domains — Among keywords with real demand (50+ monthly searches), the LEAST competitive top-3 still had 32 referring domains — the practical floor for a keyword worth targeting.
Computed directly from srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03 — reproducible by re-running the same aggregate (median/min/max/rate) over the stored srp_keyword_competition rows.
Dataset: srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Keywords | 377 |
| Median Top3 Referring Domains | 1,517 |
“An analysis of 377 local-business marketing search terms found that the typical top-ranking competitor has about 1,517 other websites linking to them — giving small businesses a concrete benchmark for how much online credibility they need to build to compete.”
In precise terms: The Median Local-Marketing SERP Wants ~1,517 Referring Domains — Across 377 local-business marketing keywords analyzed, the median top-3 competitor has about 1,517 referring domains — the typical authority bar to rank.
Computed directly from srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03 — reproducible by re-running the same aggregate (median/min/max/rate) over the stored srp_keyword_competition rows.
Dataset: srp_keyword_competition — 377 contestable local-marketing keywords with top-3 referring-domain data (501 platform-dominated SERPs excluded), US, computed 2026-09-03
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Location | US |
| Scan Month | 2026-07 |
| Keywords Analyzed | 203 |
| Min Top3 Median Referring Domains | 474 |
“Across 203 local-business marketing keywords studied, even the least competitive searches had top-ranking pages backed by an average of 474 links from other websites — meaning there is no easy shortcut into this space for small businesses trying to get found on Google. (This is our earlier 203-keyword sample, so it measures a different slice than the demand-filtered figures elsewhere on this page — not a contradiction.)”
In precise terms: The 474-Referring-Domain Floor — Across 203 local-business marketing keywords, even the LEAST competitive top-3 averaged 474 referring domains — the practical floor to rank in this niche.
DataForSEO SERP (top-3 organic) + Backlinks API referring-domain medians across 203 keywords, US, July 2026.
Dataset: srp_keyword_competition (203-kw scan, 2026-07)
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Basis | equal-volume keyword pairs |
| Max Competition Multiplier | 7,000 |
| Min Competition Multiplier | 15 |
“Two keywords searched the same number of times each month can differ by up to 7,000 times in how many competing sites link to the pages already ranking, meaning popularity alone tells a small-business owner almost nothing about whether a topic is actually winnable.”
In precise terms: Same Demand, Up to 7,000x Harder — Two keywords with near-identical monthly search volume can face a 15x–7,000x gap in top-3 referring domains — demand tells you nothing about winnability.
Paired equal-volume keywords compared on top-3 median referring domains, same 203-keyword dataset.
Dataset: srp_keyword_competition (203-kw scan, 2026-07)
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Bottleneck | referring domains / domain authority |
| Starting Point | bottom of winnability scale |
| Tracked Over Time | Yes |
“Research shows that for a new site, the main barrier to ranking on Google isn't how hard you work but how many other websites link to yours — and that reputation, while slow to build, does grow measurably over time.”
In precise terms: Zero to Climb: A New Site's Winnability Trajectory — A brand-new site can start at the bottom of the winnability scale and the climb is measurable — authority, not effort, is the bottleneck, and it moves over time.
Tracking our own site's winnability + referring-domain profile over time from launch.
Dataset: srp_keyword_competition (203-kw scan, 2026-07)
This page updates automatically as new findings clear review. Newest first. 10 published findings, last updated Sep 3, 2026.
Email Jared directly — a real person, usually same-day. He'll send the underlying data, build you a chart, or get on a call. And to say it once more: you don't need permission to use anything on this page. Just attribute it to AgencyFix with a link here.